Shortage of primary school spaces in the UK, a ticking time Bomb!

In recent years you may have heard in the news that there is a shortage of primary school places in many parts of the UK. A lot of people thought this would be a just a short term blip (including the government!) and that we would revert to the long term trend of a decreasing number of primary students year on year from as far back as the 1970's. This however is no longer the case! The UK’s population is expanding at it fastest pace in decades due to a higher birth rate and higher immigration. This means there are going to be an additional 799000 pupils in primary education by 2020, bringing us back to a similar level as in peak the 1970’s.

Although this rise in the primary student population may sound scarily high, there is actually a lot of spare capacity in UK Primary schools, with only 20% saying they were oversubscribed. The rest have over 440000 spare places so at least in the short to medium turn we will have enough spaces. The only problem is the spare capacity is in the wrong places. There is a clear shortage of spaces in London and the south east where the population is growing at a rapid pace. There is also a shortage of spaces in other major cities like Manchester and Bristol as well, which also have rising populations. You can’t just transfer spare capacity from area to another though, so the UK will need to build more schools where the capacity is needed.

What’s the plan for the future then you may be asking. Well the current government cut the school capital budget by 60% over the course of the 5 year parliament. This money was meant for expanding and upgrading schools, so in a time when pupil numbers are expanding rapidly the government is cutting back on much needed infrastructure expansion, this was all part of the deficit reduction plan. However the government last year recognised that more needed to be done and made an extra £500 million available from efficiency savings elsewhere, for new building projects with a focus on primary schools.

In the short term we are likely to see an increase in bigger schools, with 300+ pupils and bigger classes with 30+ becoming the norm. There will also be an increase in the number of schools having to use temporary classrooms to cope with the immediate influx of primary aged students. These issues will take time to address, as new schools are not normally built over night and need to go through a lot of planning and approval before they can even start to be built.